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Yesterday, the S&P 500 experienced its largest rebound since May, driven by a mix of optimism regarding a possible resolution to the conflict in Iran and quarter-end repositioning flows.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
This morning, sellers attempted to break through the 6360-6370 support zone, also testing the previous day’s low. Buyers defended this support and took control, pushing the price up to the 6440-6460 resistance zone where it consolidated throughout the morning. At the US open, buyers maintained control for the remainder of the day, propelling the price toward the 6550-6560 resistance zone, followed by the 6580-6585 zone. The S&P 500 closed between these two zones. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
During its ascent, the S&P 500 created a single print between 6500 and 6530. This morning, the US index opened within the value area at 6562 and is consolidating on the 6580-6585 resistance zone and the previous day’s VVAH, which it has already attempted to break. While the price has recovered significantly, it remains below its 200-day moving average and within its bearish channel on the 1-hour chart. The exit from this channel corresponds to the 6600 resistance zone; this level could represent a solid long entry in the event of a price increase and following trend confirmation. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Regarding options, there is a significant area of interest at 6500, and the next call zone remains at 6800. We also observe a zone of puts and calls at 6600, which should strengthen this level in the event of an upward move. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Today, market movement could accelerate with several macro data releases. We expect the ADP employment figures at 2:15 PM, Retail Sales at 2:30 PM, the PMI index at 3:45 PM, the ISM PMI and Business Inventories at 4:00 PM, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 4:30 PM. This data will likely fuel speculation regarding future Fed rate cuts. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Scenario 1 \ud83d\udfe1: Upon rejection at the 6600-6610<\/strong> resistance zone, the price could consolidate between this area and the 6550-6560<\/strong> support zone, particularly ahead of this afternoon’s data releases. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Scenario 2 \ud83d\udfe2: Upon a breakout above 6600-6610<\/strong> and an exit from its bearish channel, the price could continue its ascent toward the 6650-6655<\/strong> resistance zone and then 6700<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Scenario 3 \ud83d\udd34: Upon a break below the 6550-6560<\/strong> support zone, the price could target the 6500-6520<\/strong> support zone, thereby filling yesterday’s single print. The price could then seek the 6440-6460<\/strong> support zone following yesterday’s VVAL at 6473. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Key Levels:<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n- 6685-6700<\/strong> <\/span>(Resistance Zone)<\/li>\n
- 6650-6655 (Resistance Zone)<\/li>\n
- 6600-6610<\/strong> <\/span>(Resistance Zone)<\/li>\n
- 6580-6585 (Resistance Zone + Previous Day High 6583)<\/li>\n
- 6550-6560 (Support zone)<\/li>\n
- 6500-6520<\/strong> <\/span>(Support Zone)<\/li>\n
- 6473 (VVAL-1)<\/li>\n
- 6440-6460 (Support Zone)<\/li>\n
- 6360-6370 (Support Zone)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026-04-01GRAPH30MN.png” alt=”S&P 500 Analysis April 1, 2026 30m Chart” title_text=”2026-04-0130MCHART” url=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026-04-01GRAPH30MN.png” url_new_window=”on” align=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026-04-01MARKET-PROFILE.png” alt=”S&P 500 Analysis April 1, 2026 Market Profile” title_text=”2026-04-01MARKET PROFILE” url=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026-04-01MARKET-PROFILE.png” url_new_window=”on” align=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026-04-01OPTIONS.png” alt=”S&P 500 Analysis April 1, 2026 Options” title_text=”2026-04-01OPTIONS” url=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026-04-01OPTIONS.png” url_new_window=”on” align=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026-04-01CANALBAISSIER.png” alt=”S&P 500 Analysis April 1, 2026 Bearish Channel” title_text=”2026-04-01BEARISHCHANNEL” url=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026-04-01CANALBAISSIER.png” url_new_window=”on” align=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_divider color=”#E6C068″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n
60-Second Clock<\/span><\/h2>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/60secondeschrono-Petite.jpg” alt=”Finance Clock” title_text=”60secondclock” align=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n
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Market situation<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n- Spectacular Rally:<\/strong> <\/span>On March 31, the S&P 500 saw its largest daily gain since May, surging 2.9%. The Nasdaq followed with a 3.75% advance. <\/li>\n
- Technical or Fundamental Rebound:<\/strong> <\/span>This movement is attributed to a combination of optimism over a potential resolution to the Iran conflict and quarter-end repositioning flows.<\/li>\n
- Technical Levels:<\/strong> <\/span>The S&P 500 rebounded after hitting a low of 6,363 points last Friday. Goldman Sachs notes that CTA positioning had turned short, which favored this technical rebound. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Upcoming Events<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n- Macro Calendar:<\/strong> <\/span>Wednesday will be marked by ADP figures, Retail Sales, and the US Manufacturing ISM. Friday’s NFP report will be the ultimate decider for the week. <\/li>\n
- Trump Deadline:<\/strong> <\/span>The “ceasefire” declared by Donald Trump expires on April 6. The market is hoping for an agreement before this deadline. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Market Volatility<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n- VIX Easing:<\/strong> <\/span>The fear index retreated from 30 toward 25, although it remains at a high level by historical standards.<\/li>\n
- Bonds:<\/strong> <\/span>10-year Treasury yields eased, falling to 4.29% on March 31.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Impact of the Iran War<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n- Peace Initiative:<\/strong> <\/span>China and Pakistan presented a five-point peace plan including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/li>\n
- Trump’s Position:<\/strong> <\/span>Donald Trump suggested that oil-importing countries should secure the Hormuz passage themselves, signaling a possible withdrawal of US forces while stating that negotiations are “going well.”<\/li>\n
- Threats of Retaliation:<\/strong> <\/span>The Revolutionary Guard named 18 American tech companies (including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia) as potential targets for retaliation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Currency Reaction<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n- The Dollar Stalls:<\/strong> <\/span>The greenback suffered a slight retreat amid optimism linked to negotiations. The Euro led gains on March 31, while the Swiss Franc lagged behind. <\/li>\n
- Energy Pressure:<\/strong> <\/span>Goldman Sachs warns that the foreign exchange market has not yet fully priced in the lasting impact of the energy shock on trade balances.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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Macro<\/span><\/h2>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Macro.jpg” alt=”Macroeconomic Illustration” title_text=”Macro” align=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n
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Industry Slows and Employment Cools \/ Consumer Resilient<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Chicago PMI (Mar):<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\n- Actual: 52.8<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Forecast: 54.8<\/li>\n
- Previous: 57.7<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Consumer Confidence – Conference Board (Mar):<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\n- Actual: 91.8<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Forecast: 87.8<\/li>\n
- Previous: 91.0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
JOLTS Report – Job Openings (Feb):<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n