interest rates<\/a> between 3.5% and 3.75%. This week is described as historic because the four major central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ) are meeting simultaneously. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\nMarket Volatility<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/span><\/p>\nStocks have recently suffered from oil-related volatility, with the S&P 500 recording a weekly decline of 1.6% and its first three-week losing streak in about a year. However, sentiment has improved in the short term with a recent rebound in indices, although uncertainty related to the Middle East conflict continues to weigh heavily. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\nImpact of the Iran War<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/span><\/p>\nThe conflict has significantly disrupted the energy market, threatening one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. The attack on the Fujairah oil port forced the United Arab Emirates to cut its production by more than half. Fears of a prolonged economic shock remain if the situation escalates. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\nCurrency Reaction<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/span><\/p>\nThe U.S. dollar retreated this week against other currencies (such as the euro and the pound sterling) due to improved risk sentiment and falling bond yields. However, it had previously benefited from its safe-haven status since the start of the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\nInflation Outlook<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/span><\/p>\nInflationary fears persist due to surging energy prices. This price pressure complicates the Fed’s monetary policy forecasts, which may be forced to maintain high rates for longer to avoid a new wave of inflation, thereby rekindling the risk of a stagflationary environment. <\/span><\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_divider color=”#E6C068″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n
Macro<\/span><\/h2>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Macro.jpg” alt=”Macroeconomic Illustration” title_text=”Macro” align=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n
\n
Industry: An Unexpected Halt, New York Manufacturing Stalls<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index (March):<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n- Current:<\/strong> <\/span>-0.20<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Forecast:<\/strong> <\/span>4.00<\/li>\n
- Previous:<\/strong> <\/span>7.10<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
-><\/strong> This is a notable disappointment for the American industrial sector. The index sharply plunges into negative territory. Not only does the figure significantly miss the consensus, which anticipated continued growth, but it also erases the strong momentum of the previous month. Manufacturing activity in the New York region is suddenly contracting, reflecting a slowdown among purchasing managers, orders, and factory production. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
Summary<\/span><\/h3>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n- The first industrial domino to falter?<\/strong> <\/span>Although the U.S. economy is generally very robust, the manufacturing sector is often the first to show signs of fatigue in the event of a slowdown.<\/li>\n
- Impact for the FED:<\/strong> <\/span>For the market, a ‘bad’ macroeconomic news item of this type limits fears of overheating. Industrial weakness provides the Federal Reserve with an argument not to further tighten its policy, or even to justify future rate cuts if the trend worsens. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The FED is the focus Economic Announcements: 3:00 PM: Pending Home Sales (Learn more) Earnings Reports: Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) (Learn more) S&P 500 Analysis: \u26a0\ufe0fContract Change June 2026 VPOC: 6755.75VVA: 6744.50-6767.25High-Low: 6655-6787.25PP: 6730Open: 6744.25Vix: 24.20 SP500 Trend: Overall Bearish Sentiment \ud83d\udd34 Yesterday, the S&P500 opened in the lower zone 3 but quickly re-entered the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3600,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[52],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-points"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3604"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3604\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3693,"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3604\/revisions\/3693"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3600"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lheurefinance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}