Economic Announcements:

• 2:30 PM : Unemployment
• 4:00 PM: Bowman FOMC speech

Earnings Reports:

• Intuit (INTU)
• Monster Beverage (MNST)
• Dell Technologies (DELL)
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
• Sempra Energy (SRE)
• Vistra Energy (VST)
• Autodesk (ADSK)
• Zscaler (ZS)
• Coterra Energy (CTRA)
• SBA Communications (SBAC)
• NetApp (NTAP)

Analysis:

VPOC : 6959.75
VVA : 6936-6965
High-Low : 6892.25-6983.75
PP: 6945
Open: 6965 (Zone 1)
VIX: 17.94

SP500 Trend : Overall bullish sentiment 🟢

Yesterday, the S 500 opened above the 6883–6900 resistance zone. In the morning, sellers tried to push back below 6900, but price was strongly rejected, showing a willingness to hold above that level. This was confirmed as price never returned to 6900. At the European open, price moved higher and did not stop until the US open.

At the US open, buyers and sellers tested each other, but price did not move back below the 6920–6930 support zone, which defined the boundary between the neutral and bullish scenarios. Price consolidated just above this zone before resuming higher and not stopping until the 6955–6962 resistance zone, where it closed.

However, the main focus was after-hours, with Nvidia earnings once again coming in above expectations. Price printed a large bullish candle but was rejected around 6978, possibly signaling some caution.

This caution showed up this morning in the Asian session with a small bearish gap between 6968 and 6975. The S 500 opened right on the VVAH-1 at 6965 and, after an attempt to break above yesterday’s value area, price moved back into it. It is now consolidating in the middle of this value area around 6959. On the downside, price formed a small Single Print between 6955 and 6959.

We will need to wait for the European and especially the US opens to see how these results are being interpreted. According to Interactive Brokers, investors would be piling into tech stocks. If that is the case and price resumes higher, it could move quite far. The options board reinforces this idea with a huge call zone around 7150. There is still a call zone at 7000 and a put zone at 6900. However, it will be necessary to remain vigilant for profit-taking around 7000.

The VIX index also fell to 17.94, which is still somewhat elevated but contrasts with the start of the week.

However, it is still advisable to remain cautious today, as knee-jerk reactions can sometimes come before deeper analysis that cools investors’ enthusiasm.

Today, we will monitor the unemployment data, which remain very important, especially for the Fed.

Zones of Interest:

• 7125 (Very large Calls zone)
• 7030-7043 (Major resistance zone + ATH 7043)
• 6993-7000 (Resistance zone + 7000 Calls zone)
• 6983 (Previous day’s high)
• 6956-6963 (Resistance zone)
• 6920-6930 (Support zone)
• 6883-6900 (Major resistance zone + 6900 Puts zone)
• 6857-6866 (Support Zone)
• 6815-6830 (Major Support Zone)

Market performance

Wall Street closed higher, supported by technology stocks, particularly ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly results. Treasury yields rose, while the dollar weakened.

Upcoming Economic Events

The US Department of Labor is set to release jobless claims data, with initial claims forecast to rise to 215,000. Many companies, including Dell and Novavax, are due to report earnings, with a focus on the impact of artificial intelligence and economic conditions.

Commodity trends

Gold rose as a safe haven amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, while oil prices were mixed due to supply concerns.

Regulatory issues

Attorneys general from several US states are calling for an investigation into the agreement between Netflix and Warner Bros, highlighting concerns about competition in the streaming sector.

Cautious guidance

Several companies, including Lowe’s and TJX, issued profit guidance below expectations, signaling concerns about consumer spending in an uncertain economic environment.

Developments in artificial intelligence

Growing concerns about AI’s disruptive impact across various sectors, while noting that the stock market may struggle to post substantial gains without support from the technology sector.

Energy Market: A massive and unexpected oversupply

Crude oil inventories (weekly):

• Current: 15.989M

• Forecast: 1.800M

• Previous: -9.014M

  -> This is a strongly bearish signal for oil prices. The inventory build is colossal: the market was expecting a small increase of 1.8 million barrels, and we end up with nearly 16 million additional barrels in storage. The contrast is even more striking because it follows a week in which inventories had fallen sharply. This shows that supply is far outpacing demand at this point in time, whether due to overly strong production, rising imports, or reduced activity at US refineries.

Cushing, Oklahoma crude inventories (weekly):

• Current: 0.881M

• Previous: -1.095M

  -> Inventories there are rising again after a week of decline. This confirms and reinforces the previous figure: oil is accumulating in the tanks of the main US storage hub.

Summary

A bearish shock for crude: Such a build in commercial crude reserves means the market is currently flooded with oil relative to what is being consumed. If energy prices fall on this kind of news, it is generally a positive for the Fed, as cheaper energy helps pull overall inflation lower.