Markets are closed!
A great opportunity for your trading
Most global markets are closed today
⚠️
Markets are closed today
Day traders on prop firms: your positions must be closed before 3:00 PM
For Good Friday, most global markets are closed today.
A day wasted? Not so sure.
Simply an opportunity to do things differently, which can be beneficial for your trading
This is an opportunity to review your method, your results… and yourself!
The Autopsy: Put your latest trades under the microscope
This is the perfect time to open your trading journal. If you do not have one, today is the perfect day to create one!
Take your last 10 or 20 trades and ask yourself these questions, calmly, without the market’s emotion:
- Did I follow my plan 100% on every entry? If not, why? Impatience? Fear of missing the move?
- Was my Stop Loss placed based on technical levels, or based on the euro loss I was willing to accept?
- On my winning trades, did I exit too early out of fear of seeing my profit evaporate? How could I have improved that exit?
Objective: identify your recurring psychological biases. What costs you money is often not your strategy, but how you execute it.
The Lab: Backtest your strategy
On a market-closure day, it is the right time to open past charts and test your strategy.
Choose the instrument you usually trade and go back in time over a specific period. Many trading platforms allow this (Sierra Chart, ATAS, NinjaTrader…).
Look for your entry setups and record your results while strictly following your strategy.
Backtesting is not only useful for finding a winning strategy. Above all, it is vital for building your confidence.
Engineering: Review your system and tools
This is the day to tidy up and optimize your work environment.
- Is your setup optimal and suited to your strategy?
- Are your charts too cluttered? Is your platform configuration optimized for clear reading?
- Are your alerts properly set? Do they allow you to stay away from the charts and return only at the right moments?
- Is your Money Management still suited to your current capital? Remember the golden rule: never risk more than 1% to 2% of your capital per trade.
- Does your workspace allow you to stay 100% focused? Eliminate any distraction or element likely to short-circuit your concentration during trading sessions.
Simply enjoy life
The most important tool in trading, IS YOU!
Take the time to take time for yourself. Do everything you usually do on the weekend, and use these two days to focus on what truly matters to you!
Trading is a tool to build the life you deserve; it must not become a trap that takes up 100% of your time.
60-Second Clock
Market situation
S&P 500 resilience: The index ended Thursday’s session slightly up 0.1% despite an initial 100-point drop in premarket trading. The market benefited from short covering ahead of the long weekend.
Upcoming Events
- NFP report: The monthly US NFP employment report will be released this Friday, April 3, even though stock markets are closed.
- Trump deadline: Donald Trump’s ultimatum and ceasefire expire on April 6. Trump maintains a 2- to 3-week horizon for the end of military operations in Iran.
Market Volatility
- Oil on fire: WTI jumped $11.25 to reach $111.38 per barrel on Thursday.
- Fear gauges: The VIX eased slightly around 24.5–27 (vs. 30 last week), reflecting persistent but less panicked caution. 10-year bond yields stabilized at 4.30%
Impact of the Iran War
- Targeted escalation: The Revolutionary Guards claimed they struck steel and aluminum facilities linked to the USA in the Gulf states as a warning.
- Strait of Hormuz: A protocol was drafted between Iran and Oman for navigation in the strait, although it is described as “routine management” rather than an end-of-war agreement.
- Trump’s stance: The US president alternates between messages of “imminent victory” and threats of massive strikes on Iranian power and oil infrastructure if no deal is reached.
Macro
US Labor Market & International Trade / Total Economic Resilience
Employment remains unfazed, the trade deficit narrows.
Weekly Unemployment Claims:
- Current: 202K
- Forecast: 212K
- Previous: 211K
Regular Unemployment Benefit Recipients:
- Current: 1841K
- Forecast: 1840K
- Previous: 1816K
Trade balance (Feb.):
- Current: -57.30B
- Forecast: -60.50B
- Previous: -54.70B
Exports (Feb.):
- Current: 314.80B
- Previous: 302.20B
Imports (Feb.):
- Current: 372.10B
- Previous: 356.90B
-> The US economy is showing robust health on both fronts of this release. On the one hand, the labor market is not weakening: new jobless claims are well below expectations, proving that US companies are not laying off workers. On the other hand, the trade balance deficit is narrowing more than expected. Looking at the details, both exports and imports are sharply higher than the previous month, reflecting strong demand both within the United States and internationally.
Summary
- The economy is running at full speed: Between an extremely tight labor market and vigorous trade flows, the US engine shows no sign of slowing down.
- Impact for the FED: This is further confirmation that the Federal Reserve has no urgency to cut rates. Such a resilient economy can withstand high interest rates for longer, and the Fed will want to avoid an overly strong labor market reigniting inflation.
- Market action: These excellent macroeconomic figures are a powerful bullish catalyst for the dollar and bond yields. Conversely, the prospect of rates staying higher for longer is a fundamentally bearish signal for gold and puts pressure on equity indices.
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