Economic Announcements:

No update

Earnings Reports:

• CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD)
• Ross Stores (ROST)
• AutoZone (AZO)
• Target (TGT)
• Best Buy (BBY)

Analysis:

VPOC: 6887
VAL: 6830.50-6898.75
High-Low: 6768.50 – 6911.25
PP: 6850
Open: 6883.50
VIX: 21.43

SP500 Trend: Overall Sentiment Neutral 🟠

Yesterday, the SP500 opened with a bearish gap on the support zone of 6815-6830. In the morning, sellers took control to break this zone and test the support at 6771-6777. Buyers defended this level and brought the price back toward the 6815-6830 zone, thus reintegrating the previous day’s value area located between 6879 and 6824.

At the US open, buyers clearly regained the upper hand to propel the price beyond the opening level, finishing around the resistance zone of 6883-6900 where the price consolidated for the rest of the day. The index closed slightly higher at 6882.

This morning, the US index opened in Zone 1 at 6883.50, within the 6883-6900 resistance zone, and is showing a slight decline following the Asian session. Price broke through the 6857-6862 support zone and is heading toward the 6815-6830 support zone. During its descent and the breach of support at 6857-6862, the index formed a single print between 6855 and 6862, strengthening this area as it turned into resistance. The price remains within the previous day’s value area, and we must monitor the price reaction at the VVAL of 6838, which corresponds to the top of the 6815-6830 support zone.

The VIX remains above 20, signaling sustained volatility, while oil (WTI) has stabilized around $73. It will be important to keep an eye on crude oil, which is often inversely correlated with the SP500. The options table shows a clear majority of Puts, reflecting an extremely defensive or bearish bias from operators.

The key levels will once again be the resistance zone of 6883-6900, reinforced today by the VPOC, yesterday’s VAH, and today’s open, as well as the support zone of 6815-6830 including the VAL.

Today, we will not have any major macroeconomic data likely to disrupt the markets.

Scenario 1 🟡: On rejection at VAL-1 and the support zone of 6815-6830, the price could consolidate above this zone and below the resistance zone of 6883-6900.

Scenario 2 🔴: Upon a break of the 6815-6830 support zone, the price could target the 6772-6777 support zone, which also corresponds to the previous day’s low.

Scenario 3 🟢: On a break of the resistance zone of 6883-6900 and yesterday’s high at 6911, the price could seek the resistance zone of 6920-6930 then that of 6955-6962

Zones of Interest:

• 6955-6962 (Resistance zone)
• 6920-6930 (Resistance Zone)
• 6911 (yesterday’s high)
• 6883-6900 (Resistance zone + Open 6883 + VPOC 6887 + VAH-1)
• 6857-6866 (Resistance zone)
• 6815-6830 (Support zone + VAL-1)
• 6772-6777 (Support zone)
• 6715-6720 (Support Zone)

Stock Market

The S 500 and Nasdaq indices rose slightly after an initial sell-off due to geopolitical tensions in Iran, accompanied by a rise in oil prices and Treasury yields.

Companies in Focus

Target expects a decline in fourth-quarter revenue due to pressure on household budgets. CrowdStrike anticipates rising revenue driven by demand for its cybersecurity solutions. Best Buy and Norwegian Cruise Line also expect declining revenue, impacted by challenging market conditions.

Middle East Tensions

US and Israeli military strikes against Iran have caused oil prices to rise, raising concerns about inflation and the potential economic impact of a prolonged conflict.

US Economy

Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators, including consumer sentiment and the impact of tariffs, as the manufacturing sector shows signs of growth.

Global Outlook

The Brazilian economy may have experienced slight growth, while geopolitical tensions continue to affect markets, particularly in the travel sector.

Technology and Acquisitions

Nvidia plans to invest heavily in companies to strengthen its artificial intelligence capabilities, while mergers in the media sector are creating entities with significant debt levels.

US Activity and Inflation: Manufacturing sector in strong acceleration

Manufacturing Activity (PMI ISM) (February):

• Current: 51.6 (PMI) / 52.4 (ISM)
• Forecast: 51.2 (PMI) / 51.7 (ISM)
• Previous: 51.2 (PMI) / 52.6 (ISM)

-> This is a very clear signal of economic resilience. Both indices exceed expectations and, most importantly, remain solidly above the critical threshold of 50. This proves that the US industrial sector is clearly rebounding. The economy is robust and business activity is accelerating.

ISM Manufacturing Details: Prices Paid Employment (February):

• Current: 70.5 (Prices) / 48.8 (Employment)
• Forecast: 60.6 (Prices) / 48.3 (Employment)
• Previous: 59.0 (Prices) / 48.1 (Employment)

-> This is the shock data from this release. The Prices Paid index exploded to 70.5, crushing forecasts. This means that manufacturers are experiencing a massive and brutal increase in their procurement costs. This is a leading indicator of inflation with remarkable precision: these additional costs will ultimately be passed on to consumers. On the employment side, although it remains technically in contraction, it is improving more than expected, showing a labor market that refuses to crack.