Who really controls the tap?
Economic Announcements:
- 1:30 PM: Trade balance
- 2:30 PM: Unemployment
- 2:30 PM : Nonfarm productivity
- 4:00 PM: Factory orders
Earnings Reports:
Analysis:
VPOC : 6882.75
VVA : 6843.75 – 6893.75
High-Low : 6773.50 – 6894
PP: 6855
Open: 6883.25 (Zone 1)
VIX: 21.14
SP500 Trend: Overall Sentiment Neutral 🟠
Yesterday, the S 500 opened lower into the 6815–6830 resistance zone. Sellers took control during the Asian session and pushed price back to the 6771–6777 support zone.
Buyers then regained control and brought price back above the resistance zone—now turned support—at 6815–6830. Price did not trade back below this level for the rest of the day. At the US open, despite an attempt by sellers to regain control, the flow remained bullish, with a strong impulse that stalled in the 6883–6900 resistance zone. Price then moved sideways between that resistance and the 6857–6866 support, closing slightly higher around 6875.
This morning, the index is opening in Zone 1 at 6883.25, just below the 6883–6900 resistance zone it attempted to break. During that attempt, price moved out of yesterday’s Value Area but quickly re-entered it after being rejected above 6900. Sellers brought price back to the 6857–6866 support zone, where it is currently moving sideways.
In options, there is a significant call wall starting around 7000 and peaking at 7050. On the put side, notable peaks are observed around 6850 and 6800. These areas will act as magnetic targets or floors if price declines. The VIX remains above 20, indicating the market is still nervous. Vigilance is required regarding volatility, particularly at the US open.
Today, we will closely monitor the macro data on jobless claims, the trade balance, nonfarm productivity, and factory orders.
Scenario 1 🟡: On a rejection from the 6883-6900 resistance zone and from VVAH-1 at 6894, price could consolidate between this resistance and VVAL-1 at 6843.
Scenario 2 🔴: On a break below VVAL-1 at 6843 and confirmation via a break of the 6815-6830 support zone, price could resume to the downside and target the 6771-6777 support zone, then 6715-6720.
Scenario 3 🟢: On a break above VVAH-1 at 6893 and confirmation via a break above 6900, price could continue higher and target the 6920–6930 area, then the 7000 resistance.
Zones of Interest:
- 7030-7043 (Major Resistance Zone)
- 6993-7000 (Resistance Zone)
- 6920-6930 (Resistance Zone)
- 6883-6900 (Resistance zone + VPOC-1 6882 + VVAH-1 6893 + Open 6883 + prior day high)
- 6857-6866 (Support zone)
- 6815-6830 (Support zone)
- 6771-6777 (Support zone + prior day low)
- 6715-6720 (Support Zone)
60-second Chrono
Market overview
Wall Street closed higher, supported by news that Iran is open to talks and by President Trump’s promises to stabilize oil markets. Oil prices rose, while Treasury yields also climbed on inflation concerns. The dollar fell, supporting gold.
US Economy
The Labor Department is set to release a report on jobless claims, with claims forecast to rise to 215,000. Costco and Kroger expect revenue growth, while Gap and other retailers are watching the impact of tariff uncertainty on consumer sentiment.
Economic events
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak at an event in New York. Technology companies, including Marvell Technology, are being watched for comments on AI chip demand, as the sector continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure.
Latin America
Brazil is expected to release data showing the unemployment rate rising to 5.4% and a trade surplus for February. In Mexico, gross fixed investment is also expected to show a slight increase.
Market Trends
Tensions in the Middle East continue to influence markets, with increased volatility, particularly in the oil sector. Investors remain concerned about potential inflation stemming from these conflicts.
Corporate outlook
Bath Body Works expects a decline in sales, while Abercrombie Fitch is adjusting its guidance due to tariff tensions. Moderna reached a $2.25 billion settlement regarding its COVID vaccine patent, allowing the company to focus on other developments.
Macro
US Activity, Services and Employment: A robust services sector and easing inflation
ADP nonfarm private payrolls (February):
Actual: 63K
Forecast: 50K
Previous: 11K
-> The private labor market is rebounding. After an extremely weak prior month, US companies are getting back into gear. While this is not a hiring boom, it is above expectations and reassuring: the labor market is showing resilience, pushing back the risk of an immediate recession.
Services activity (PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing) (February):
Actual: 51.7 (PMI) / 56.1 (ISM)
Forecast: 52.3 (PMI) / 53.5 (ISM)
Previous: 52.7 (PMI) / 53.8 (ISM)
-> There is a slight divergence here, but the ISM message clearly dominates. While SP Global’s PMI disappoints slightly as it loses momentum, the ISM delivers a strong upside surprise with a sharp acceleration to 56.1. The services sector—the true engine of the US economy—is expanding and in very good shape.
ISM Non-Manufacturing details: Prices Paid Employment (February):
- Actual: 63.0 (Prices) / 51.8 (Employment)
- Forecast: 68.3 (Prices) / N/A (Employment)
- Previous: 66.6 (Prices) / 50.3 (Employment)
-> This is the signal markets love. On one hand, services employment is quietly accelerating. On the other—and this is the key surprise—the “Prices Paid” component drops sharply to 63.0 versus 68.3 expected. This means inflationary pressure in services is cooling significantly despite strong activity. It is an excellent fundamental signal for equity indices.
Energy: Supply is building
Crude oil inventories Cushing (Oklahoma):
Actual: 3.475M (Crude) / 1.564M (Cushing)
Forecast: 3.000M (Crude)
Previous: 15.989M (Crude) / 0.881M (Cushing)
-> Crude inventories rose more than expected. Even though we are far from last week’s extreme figure, this renewed inventory build—including at the strategic Cushing hub—is a rather bearish short-term signal for oil prices. It reflects supply continuing to exceed immediate demand.
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