Economic Announcements:

• 3:45 PM: Chicago PMI
• 4:00 PM: Consumer Confidence
• 4:00 PM: JOLTS Report new job openings

(Read more)

Corporate Earnings:

• Nike (NKE)
• McCormick & Company Incorporated (MKC)
• FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS)

(Read more)

S&P 500 Analysis:

VPOC: 6430
VVA: 6387.75 – 6459
High-Low: 6359.50-6481.75
PP: 6410
Opening: 6385.25 (Zone 2)
Vix: 27.92

Yesterday, the S&P 500 opened at 6380, just above the 6360-6370 support zone. After testing this support and forming a double bottom, buyers took control and held it until the US open, pushing the price above the 6440-6460 resistance zone.

At the US open, the situation reversed with very strong aggressive selling pressure that drove the price down towards the daily opening levels, despite buyers defending the previous day’s VVAL. Ultimately, the index closed flat, around 6380.

This morning, the S&P 500 opened in Zone 2 at 6385, just below the previous day’s VVAL. After testing the 6360-6370 support zone, buyers took control to push the price up to the 6440-6460 resistance zone, below which it is currently trading, thereby re-entering the previous day’s value area.

Volumes are once again above average, and the VIX index is still perched at almost 28. In terms of options, we can observe strong put interest at 6000, 6200, and 6500. For calls, the largest concentrations are at 6800 and 7000.

Today, we will have the Chicago PMI at 3:45 PM, consumer confidence at 4:00 PM, and the JOLTS report on new job openings at 4:00 PM.

Scenario 1 🟢: Upon a break of the 6440-6460 resistance zone, the price could resume its upward trend and target yesterday’s high at 6481, then the 6500-6520 resistance zone.

Scenario 2 🟡: Upon rejection at the 6440-6460 resistance zone, the price could consolidate below this zone and the 6360-6370 support zone.

Scenario 3 🔴: Upon a break of the 6360-6370 support zone, the price could resume its downward trend and target the 6240-6260 support zone.

Key Levels:

• 6550-6560 (Resistance Zone)
• 6500-6520 (Resistance Zone)
• 6481 (Previous Day’s High)
• 6440-6460 (Resistance Zone +VVAH-1 6459)
• 6388 (VVAL-1)
• 6360-6370 (Support Zone + Previous Day’s Low 6359)
• 6240-6260 (Support Zone)

Market performance

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower, while oil prices rose. Optimism surrounding US-Iran talks was offset by warnings from President Trump to Tehran. The Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.11%.

Bond Yields

Bond yields fell due to growing concerns about global growth, with investors focusing on the risk of a recession linked to the Middle East war.

US Economy

Important economic indicators are expected, including a decrease in job openings and a decline in the consumer confidence index. The Chicago PMI is also anticipated, with a projected lower reading.

Corporate News

• Sysco announced the acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot for $29 billion, aiming to expand its market reach.
• Nvidia sees its P/E ratio reach a historically low level, due to concerns related to war and AI.
• Alaska Air forecasts an increased loss in the first quarter due to rising fuel costs.
• Microsoft unveiled updates for its AI assistant, Copilot.

Market Trends

Oil prices continue to rise, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East, which could have inflationary effects and slow economic growth.

Market Reactions

Investors are expressing growing concerns about geopolitical uncertainty, which is affecting expectations for corporate growth and profitability.

Inflation Outlook

• Stagflation in sight: Analysts fear a scenario of low growth and high inflation. PCE inflation is now projected at an average of 3.1% for the year (up from 2.6% previously).

• Household expectations: One-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.8% in the US (up from 3.4% in February) and reached an all-time high in Australia.

• Fed’s stance: John Williams (NY Fed) expects inflation to rise to 2.75% this year before receding, reinforcing the “higher for longer” message.