The SP 500 in the
starting blocks?
Economic Announcements:
- 1:30 PM: Import/Export Price Indices
- 3:30 PM : Crude Oil Inventories
Corporate Earnings:
S&P 500 Analysis:
VPOC: 6607.50
VAL: 6598-6634.25
High-Low: 6573.50-6680.50
PP: 6630
Open: 6646.50 (Zone 2)
VIX: 24.91
Yesterday, the SP 500 opened near the previous day’s VAL at 6635. Buyers and sellers exchanged control, causing the price to oscillate between the support zone of 6583-6586 and the resistance zone of 6650-6655. Before the US open, sellers had control, with the price at the support zone of 6583-6586.
At the US open, sellers attempted to maintain control but were countered below the support zone, with buyers pushing the price back up to the resistance zone of 6633-6636. The price then consolidated between this resistance zone and the support zone of 6600-6610.
In after-hours trading, the price rose sharply above the resistance zone of 6650-6655 after reports mentioned that a one-month ceasefire had been announced in Iran, with a plan to end the war.
This morning, the US index opens in bullish imbalance in zone 2 at 6646, above the previous day’s value area. The price is currently consolidating between the support zone of 6633-6636 and the resistance zone of 6650-6655.
Indicators are rather bullish at the moment and the delta is also in buyer territory.
The S 500 has moved back above its 200-day moving average, which is a strong signal.
In terms of options, we still have our large Put zone at 6500. Closer, we have Puts at 6600 and 6700 and Call zones at 6700 and 6800. The 6700 level should act as a magnet today.
Today, we will have the import and export price indices at 1:30 PM, as well as oil inventories at 3:30 PM.
Scenario 1 🟢: On a break above the resistance zone of 6685-6695, the price could target the resistance zone of 6740-6745 then 6771-6777.
Scenario 2 🟡: On rejection at the previous day’s high at 6680 and the resistance zone of 6685-6695, the price could consolidate between 6695 and the support zone of 6600-6610.
Scenario 3 🔴: On a break below the support zone of 6600-6610 with confirmation by breaking the previous day’s VAL at 6598, the price could target the support zone of 6525-6550.
Key Levels:
- 6771-6777 (Resistance zone)
- 6740-6745 (Resistance Zone)
- 6685-6695 (Resistance Zone)
- 6650-6655 (Support Zone)
- 6633-6636 (Support Zone + VAH-1)
- 6600-6610 (Support zone)
- 6573 (Previous Day’s Low)
- 6525-6550 (Support Zone)
- 6445-6460 (Support zone)
60-Second Clock
Market Summary
Wall Street closed lower, with stock indices affected by concerns related to the war in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Treasury yields increased following a two-year note auction that saw disappointing demand.
Upcoming Economic Data
Expected reports include import and export prices for February, as well as current account data, with forecasts indicating a reduction in the deficit.
Upcoming Events
- Peace Negotiations (Thursday): Markets are awaiting Iran’s response to talks proposed by the United States.
- Arrival of US Troops (Friday): A new rotation of Marines is expected in the Middle East, coinciding with the end of a deadline set by Trump on infrastructure strikes.
- Central Bank Meetings: The ECB and BoE are being closely monitored for potential rate hikes in April if inflation spirals.
Key Events
- Rising Oil Prices: Oil prices climbed due to supply disruptions, while conflicting statements about peace negotiations added to uncertainty.
- Impact on Gold: Gold prices declined, reflecting expectations of higher inflation and interest rates.
Company Analysis
Several companies, including Jefferies and Starbucks, are in the spotlight for investors, with expected financial results and governance issues.
Market Trends
Analysts note a stagflationary environment, where rising energy prices and interest rates do not favor equities.
Important News
- Ares Management: Limited withdrawals from its private credit fund due to high demand.
- United Airlines: Announced changes to its fleet in response to rising fuel costs.
- Broadcom: Reported supply constraints due to increased demand for AI chips.
Macro
US Activity: Manufacturing Accelerates, Services Slow
Manufacturing PMI (Mar):
Actual: 52.4
Forecast: 51.5
Previous: 51.6
-> Pleasant surprise. The indicator beats expectations. US manufacturing is clearly recovering and confirms its expansion (above 50).
Services PMI (Mar):
Actual: 51.1
Forecast: 52.0
Previous: 51.7
-> Disappointment. The services sector (the largest driver of the US economy) slows more than expected, although it remains barely in growth territory.
Summary
The Assessment: The economy is running at two speeds. The manufacturing rebound does not fully offset the fatigue in services, hence a Composite PMI slightly down at 51.4. Overall growth is maintained, but it is slowing.
The Impact for the Fed: This is the “soft landing” scenario. The slowdown in services is excellent for cooling inflation, while manufacturing keeps recession at bay. This reinforces the Fed’s view of maintaining high rates without urgency to lower them.
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