Trump said it’s almost over…
Economic Announcements:
Earnings Reports:
- Oracle (ORCL)
Analysis:
VPOC: 6800.50
VVA: 6669.25 – 6818.25
High-Low: 6584.75-6854
PP: 6735
Open: 6778.50
VIX: 24.19
SP500 Trend: Neutral 🟠 to Bullish 🟢 overall sentiment
Yesterday, the S&P 500 experienced a volatile session, opening with a bearish GAP that drove the price to a low of 6585 after breaking through the support zone of 6624-6640. During the morning, the price moved back above this zone and consolidated until the resistance zone of 6712-6720 leading up to the US open.
At the US open, the price tested the support at 6624-6640, where buyers took control and pushed the price above the 6712-6720 zone, where it consolidated throughout the afternoon, notably filling the bearish GAP established during the Asian session.
In the evening, the price surged significantly, driven by Trump’s statements suggesting that the conflict in Iran could soon come to an end, causing oil prices to drop. The price thus rose to the resistance zone of 6820-6830, respecting our bullish scenario, and closed at 6792.
During the rally, the index created a single print at 6741-6773.
This morning, the S&P 500 opened in zone 1 at 6778.50 above the support at 6771-6777. The price has already filled part of the single print down to 6763 but was rejected. The price is currently consolidating between the support zone of 6771-6777 and the resistance zone of 6793-6795, between the open and VPOC-1.
Options show Put spikes at 6800 and 6850. Investors are hedging against a potential decline. This level could attract the price but also act as a wall to break through in case of a rally. The 6800 zone is likely to be the battleground today.
The VIX remains above 24; volatility is still present, and it will be necessary to monitor geopolitical developments, as events can unfold very quickly, as seen yesterday evening.
Today, we will receive existing home sales data.
Scenario 1 🟡: On rejection at the resistance zone of 6815-6830, the price could consolidate between the support zone of 6715-6720 and the resistance zone of 6815-6830
Scenario 2 🟢: On a break above the resistance zone of 6815-6830 and VVAH-1, confirmed by breaking the previous day’s high at 6854, the price could target the 6883-6900 zone.
Scenario 3 🔴: On a break below the support zone of 6715-6720, the price could decline and target VVAL-1 at 6669, then the support zone of 6624-6640
Zones of Interest:
- 6993-7000 (Resistance Zone)
- 6920-6930 (Resistance Zone)
- 6883-6900 (Resistance zone)
- 6855-6866 (Resistance zone + previous day’s high 6854)
- 6815-6830 (Resistance zone + VVAH-1 6818.25)
- 6771-6777 (Support zone + Open 6778)
- 6715-6720 (Support Zone)
- 6669 (VVAL-1)
- 6624-6640 (Support zone)
- 6585 (Previous day’s low)
60-second Chrono
Stock Market
Stocks rebounded after a sharp decline, following comments from President Trump suggesting that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran could end soon. Stock indices, notably the Dow Jones and S&P 500, posted significant gains.
Oil Prices
Oil prices fell, with Brent losing 4.14% and WTI 5.70%. This decline was influenced by rumors of reduced oil sanctions against Russia and concerns about inflation.
Treasury Yields
Yields declined as market volatility increased in response to geopolitical news.
Trump does not rule out easing sanctions against Russia
- The catalyst: Facing soaring oil prices linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (Iran conflict), the Trump administration is urgently seeking to stabilize the market to protect American consumers before the midterm elections.
- Measures under consideration: The primary option on the table is a temporary easing of sanctions on Russian oil to reintroduce global supply, coupled with the use of strategic reserves.
- Market sentiment: Trump is being proactive (exchanges with Putin, lifting of certain sanctions enacted), but analysts remain highly skeptical about the actual effectiveness of these measures as long as maritime shipping does not resume normally.
US Economy
Existing home sales data is expected, with a slight increase anticipated. Companies such as Oracle and Kohl’s are scheduled to release their earnings, which is generating investor interest.
Conflicts and Uncertainties
Investors remain concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the Middle East conflict and its economic implications, particularly potentially increased inflation.
Market Analysis
Market fluctuations are attributed to geopolitical and economic factors, with analysts expressing concerns about stagflation if energy prices continue to rise.
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