This week was rich in macroeconomic data, but it created a sense of contradiction and uncertainty. Early in the week, the macro picture showed a seemingly unstoppable US economy, with:

• A solid industrial sector : New York’s Empire State index surprised to the upside, the Philadelphia Fed index surged to 16.3 versus 7.5 expected, and industrial production showed a 0.7% increase.
• A tight labor market : Jobless claims fell (206k versus 223k expected).
• Industries investing heavily: With core durable goods orders jumping 0.9%.

But on Friday, the data showed a very different picture, reviving the specter of stagflation. GDP and PCE caught the market off guard:

• A sharp slowdown in growth : Q4 GDP came in at 1.4%, well below the 2.8% expected and the prior 4.4%, showing that high rates are starting to weigh.
• Sticky inflation : Core PCE inflation accelerated to 3% year over year versus 2.9% expected.

This is quite a dilemma for the Fed, which cannot cut rates to support growth without risking inflation running hotter.

Oil inventories also surprised everyone with a very sharp decline, while the market had expected a more moderate drop.

Despite this data, the market did not move lower, helped by the US Supreme Court’s отменment of Trump’s tariffs.

This week will be crucial to confirm whether this growth slowdown is taking hold. We will have factory orders, consumer confidence, home price indices, oil inventories, jobless claims, PPI inflation, and the Chicago PMI.

Summary

• Abrupt slowdown in US growth.
• Sharp drop in oil inventories.
• A dilemma for the Fed, torn between supporting growth and fighting inflation.

This week was mainly marked by tensions between Iran and the United States, and above all by the cancellation of Trump’s tariffs, which gave the market a bullish boost.

The United States deployed massive forces (aircraft carrier, fighter jets) to pressure Iran, raising the threat of a military campaign on a scale not seen since 2003.

But the biggest news, which could influence markets this week, is certainly the cancellation of Trump’s tariffs deemed unconstitutional. Donald Trump, of course, did not remain silent, calling the decision a “disgrace” and threatening to impose a new 10% tax on all imports for 150 days using another law.

The big question remains corporate reimbursements: the United States could face a potential liability of around $175 billion, and the reimbursement terms are still unclear. There is no doubt this episode will bring further twists this week.

On the earnings front, this week we will have Nvidia’s results, which should reignite questions around AI, especially if the numbers disappoint.

Otherwise, Google unveiled Gemini 3.1, Tesla relaunched a cheaper Cybertruck model, and OpenAI is reportedly working on its own devices (hardware).

Summary

• US Supreme Court cancels Trump’s tariffs
• Strong US pressure on Iran with a massive deployment of forces.
• Nvidia earnings on Wednesday

Weekly Levels

VPOC : 6875
LOW-HIGH : 6791-6931.50
VVA : 6845 – 6904.25

This week, after a public holiday on Monday, the market was very cautious and the S 500 remained stuck between two supports and resistances despite very high volatility and a VIX above 20 (back down to 19 on Friday). The US index still ended the week up 1.26%.

The 6,900 level played a crucial role and proved to be the level to break to finally hope for further upside. It was broken several times, but sellers were always there to block these upside attempts.

The 6,815–6,830 support also held up very well, acting as a real cushion during the S 500’s sharp drop on Tuesday. From Wednesday, price tried to move higher again, but the 6,883–6,900 resistance zone continued to slow buyers. Price managed to break 6,900 twice, on Wednesday and Friday (tariff cancellation), but a resistance zone at 6,920–6,930 stopped the move. On Friday, price closed at 6,925, right in that well-known zone. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the rally is sustainable or whether it will fall back below 6,900—especially since Friday’s data and possible stagflation were “forgotten” amid the tariff cancellation.

Price moved above the 200 moving average on the 1-hour chart and the weekly VWAP is rising. RSI has also moved back into bullish territory. However, given Friday’s news, we will really need to wait for Monday’s open to see whether the trend is sustainable. If price reaches Thursday’s single print area at 6,928–6,953, it could rise quickly. On the other hand, 7,000 will still be a wall to break. On the options board, we can see strong interest at 7,000, which could attract price but also create significant resistance to overcome.

In terms of volume, we can see a few large buy volumes across the week, which could indicate an accumulation phase.

Summary

• A rather bullish end to the week after the tariff cancellation erased Friday’s weak macro data.
• The 6,900 and 7,000 levels are important.
• Accumulation phase?

Points of Interest

• 7030-7043 (Major resistance zone + ATH 7043)
• 6993-7000 (Resistance zone + major 7000 Call option zone)
• 6956-6963 (Resistance zone)
• 6928-6953 (Single print)
• 6883-6900 (Major resistance zone)
• 6815-6830 (Support zone)
• 6791 (Weekly low)
• 6,770-6,777 (Support Zone)
• 6715-6720 (Support zone)
• 6625-6640 (Major support zone)

Overall sentiment: neutral to bullish